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Kristen and John Large were expecting multiple offers on their semi-detached home, but they were shocked at the intense competition that followed. After a six-person bidding war, the couple sold to a buyer who had lost out on two other homes and was willing to pay $53,000 above their $518,000 asking price. That offer that came with no conditions, not even a home inspection.
The couple, who were looking for a bigger home, were thrilled at the deal – and nervous of what was to come. “All I kept thinking about was: ‘I’m going to be on the other side of this table in a little while,’” Mr. Large says.
Sure enough, two months later, the couple found themselves in competition with six other buyers for a four-bedroom detached house that had been priced well below market value, a popular tactic among agents looking to spark a bidding war.
They won on the second round of bidding. Now it was their turn to waive all conditions.
“You take a bit of a gamble,” Mr. Large says. “But that’s probably what it takes to win out in this market.”
Such scenes have become commonplace in Toronto’s overheated housing market. Except that the Larges’ home buying and selling frenzy was playing out in Aurora, Ont., a suburb roughly an hour’s drive from the city.
Toronto’s sizzling market may get all the attention, with the average price of a detached house topping $1.2-million last month. But it’s in the suburbs where the most intense housing battles are being waged.
Last month, the volume of home resales soared an annualized 23 per cent in the Toronto suburbs (known by their area codes as the “905”). That volume was nearly double the 12-per-cent increase in the city itself. And the benchmark price of a detached house in the suburbs jumped nearly 15 per cent from a year earlier, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported.
In Milton, northwest of the city, the benchmark detached-home price surged an annualized 42 per cent. By comparison, the benchmark price for a detached house in Toronto rose 10.5 per cent from a year earlier.
Greater competition for suburban homes has meant the previously staid 905 housing market is starting to see the aggressive tactics more common in Toronto.
Richmond Hill real estate agent Shawn Zigelstein began noticing a change in the market last fall, when it seemed that every home that came up for sale in the community was involved in a bidding war. It caught many local agents off guard, he says.
“It used to be rare that in the 905 we would see multiple offers and product going for over asking price, firm deals with no conditions,” he says. Now, “offers with eight, 10, 12 other agents are almost normal.”
Some of the factors driving the suburban housing market are similar to those driving home prices in the city: low interest rates, strong employment and immigration. The economic factors are even more important in the suburbs, which are home to nearly half of all job growth and 75 per cent of immigration to the Greater Toronto Area.
Foreign investors are also becoming an increasingly potent force in the suburbs, in some cases paying well over asking price to purchase the home with its existing furniture.
Clients now sometimes ask if their listings can be advertised in Chinese-language newspapers in hopes of attracting top dollar for their properties, says Caroline Baile, the Large’s real estate agent.
“They see our market as a safe market to put funds in and they’re coming in and they’re putting their money into homes,” Mr. Zigelstein says. “At the end of the day, they’re not looking at the prices as much as maybe they should if they were doing their research properly.”
The suburbs have also been changing, with newly constructed or renovated homes aimed at a wealthier buyer than in the past, which is also helping to drive up average prices. “Most families or couples in the old days weren’t really buying $1-million properties,” Ms. Baile says. “But it’s almost like that is the price point for a lot of people now.”
But the biggest driver of the hot suburban market has been provincial policy, says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow at Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.
Ontario’s decade-old legislation aimed at curbing sprawl has predominately affected the 905, which is home to 90 per cent of the developable land in the GTA. The sweeping overhaul to the land-use planning rules has restricted the amount of land available for building single-family homes in the GTA in favour of condos. That has helped to dramatically slow development.
Despite steadily rising demand for suburban homes, the number of housing starts for what Mr. Clayton calls ground-related homes – detached and semi-detached houses, along with townhouses – has actually declined in the 905 over the past decade. “It’s very odd because demand is extremely strong but supply is going down,” he says.
The end result of booming suburban prices is that many local first-time buyers have been pushed out of the suburban market into farther-flung reaches of the region. Ms. Baile has clients who have been priced out of Aurora and Newmarket and bought homes in communities like Keswick and Bradford instead.
Few expect the conditions that are driving the hot suburban market to change any time soon. “If people want lower-density housing and we’re not producing enough of it, prices are going to be high,” Mr. Clayton says. “They’re going to stay high and probably go even higher.”
Average House Prices to Edge Higher in 2016: CREA
The national average price is forecast to edge higher by 1.4 per cent to $448,700 in 2016. Price gains in 2016 are forecast to be strongest in Ontario (+2.9 per cent) due to an ongoing shortage of listings for single family homes coupled with strong demand for them in and around the GTA.
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For years, condo life was seen as the pinnacle of big city living for the young, hip set. Steps from amenities, right by downtown, easy to reach, and every night and day’s a party.
Even today, the city is plastered with posters selling promises of condo life, but more and more people are opting to skip the condo experience, with many of today’s condo owners and renters moving on to other housing choices, like renting in the suburbs where the prices are lower.
Originally, condos encouraged low-income Canadians to buy homes rather than renting, but in the past few years, people are more interested in living downtown for work, better opportunities and being able to say they live downtown. The increasing number of seniors and lower rates of marriages and births are fuelling demand for smaller and more affordable homes. However, as time has passed, the luster has begun to fade for many.
“I would say buyers in their 20s probably won’t live in that condo for five years,” David Fleming, a Realtor with Bosley Real Estate and writer of the Toronto Realty Blog, said.
“They’re going to either outgrow it, or find a mate and want a bigger, better or different place.”
Another issue, and one often overlooked, is the demographics that condos are attracting. Developers are focused on condos with one-bedroom units, which attract two specific demographics: first-time buyers moving out of their parents’ place and the older generation who are downsizing from larger homes. Statistics Canada reported in 2011, that the majority of condo owners are below 35 and older than 65.
The two generations often end up sharing a floor, which understandably leads to clashes between the two generations. As a result of these issues, and many more besides, more and more people are simply renting or otherwise avoiding the world of condos, and taking greater care of themselves and their bank account once the glamor of downtown living has worn off.
Toronto has definitely lost its groove. Its no longer the jewel it used to be. As such, now is the perfect time to leave Toronto. One of the best places to live outside of Toronto is Alliston.
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According to 84% of people surveyed by Angus Reid, “it is unrealistic for young people to expect to own a house and a yard in the GTA.”
45% of those surveyed admitted to being forced to shop outside the GTA due to the high cost of owning property and living in the city.
In hot markets like Toronto and Vancouver, high flying prices and low amounts of properties are forcing prospective homeowners to take desperate measures, including turning to craigslist, leafleting, posting flyers and even knocking on doors in search of properties for sale.
Kate Whyte, of Vancouver, described her time knocking on doors: “I had a lot of elderly people tell me I was crazy… I had a lot of people say they totally understood. I had a lot of people say they had done the same thing.”
Real estate agents are similarly being forced to take an active role in searching for clients. Ryan Thompson, an agent with Royal LePage Burloak Real Estate in Toronto, blindly sends letters asking if homeowners are interested in selling and has even begun cold-calling homeowners to see if they’re interested in selling. Before, they would only have done this for difficult clients, but now it’s a weekly event.
Recently, a home with holes in the roof, where agents advised potential buyers to bring a flashlight, sold for more than one million dollars. It is believed to have been bought primarily for the location: “steps from the lake in one direction and seconds to the shops and restaurants in the other.” That’s a prime location, even if the house in question is “uninhabitable.” Houses can be torn down and rebuilt.
According to TREB, prices will continue to go up until the number of listings begin to match or exceed the number of sales. Until this happens, expect to hear more stories like these.
It’s impossible to predict when this bubble will (preferably) deflate or even burst, but the Bank of Canada already considers investing in the housing market to be a financial risk. While the Bank of Canada wants to boost the country’s sluggish growth, cheaper money could lead to an even more frenzied housing market in two of the country’s biggest cities.
Realosophy Real Estate president John Pasalis believes that the market may calm down a bit when construction slows, but added “I think (prices are) going to continue where they have been going.”
As Toronto continues to grow, the cost of buying a home also increases. Its becoming increasingly difficult to buy a home in Toronto because of the high costs involved. As such, many people are now considering moving outside of Toronto in search of affordable homes. That is where we at At Previn Court Homes can help.
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July saw a record number of Toronto-area homes sold, with an average selling price of $609,236 for the month.
According to Mark McClean, Real Estate Board President: “9,880 homes sold in the Greater Toronto area in July 2015, representing an 8 per cent increase from the sales in July 2014.”
According to a recently released report, the sales broke the sales record for July, a month that’s typically slower for the real estate industry. “It is important to point out that home ownership demand has been driven not only by low borrowing costs, but also by the fact that the GTA economy has been performing quite well,” McLean said in the report.
The TREB report found that the average sale price in the GTA was $609,236 for the month of July, up 10.6 per cent from July 2014, when the average was $550,625. Even though the average sale price reached a record high in July, prices are actually lower than the average price in June.
According to these findings, the city of Toronto is set to break the record for number of homes sold in a year, previously set in 2007. The previous record was 93,193 homes sold, with an average selling price of $327,236. With this report, TREB has recorded 64,514 sales in 2015. Records have consistently been broken across the year, with April, May, June and July all exceeding expectations. Additionally, monthly sales have been higher year-over-year every month of 2015, when compared to last year’s sales.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation have stated that a surge in condo construction pushed Canada’s housing starts figure to its highest level of the year in August, at 196,565.
We’ve all heard the stories about crazy house sales in Toronto, like the eight feet wide three storey property that features a garden, balcony and a sauna that’s currently on the market for $750,000. Or the dilapidated house on the Beaches that sold for more than a million, despite not being hooked up to hydro, with holes in the roof and animals inhabiting a few floors and just generally being deemed “uninhabitable.”
The fact is, the Toronto real estate market is heating up, with no sign of cooldown coming any time soon. According to TREB, the rate of sales growth is outpacing the rate of listings growth by a wide margin. In a release, Jason Mercer, TREB’s director of market analysis, stated: “As long as this situation persists, expect home prices to trend strongly upward.”
Toronto has definitely lost its groove. Its no longer the jewel it used to be. As such, now is the perfect time to leave Toronto. One of the best places to live outside of Toronto is Alliston. If you’re ready to move, we at Previn Court build a home for you. With over 35 years of experience, we have built homes for over a thousand families, including detached, townhome, and unique attached single units, and we can help you find the perfect home for you.
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